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CIA Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Instant Download
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This electronic instant download pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating,
and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate
of Intelligence. Four of the articles also appeared in the Intelligence Community
journal Studies in Intelligence during that time frame. The information is relatively
timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis.
The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how
people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous
information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to
intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. I
then translated the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can
understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems
intelligence analysts face.
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C O N T E N T S
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PART I--OUR MENTAL
MACHINERY
Chapter 1: Thinking About ThinkingChapter 2: Perception: Why Can't
We See What Is There to Be Seen?
Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We
Remember What We Know?
PART II--TOOLS FOR
THINKING
Chapter 4: Strategies for AnalyticalJudgment: Transcending the Limits
of Incomplete Information
Chapter 5: Do You Really Need
More Information?
Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical
Problems
Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing
Hypotheses
PART III--COGNITIVE BIASESChapter 9: What Are Cognitive
Biases?
Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of
Evidence
Chapter 11: Biases in Perception ofCause and Effect
Chapter 12: Biases in EstimatingProbabilities
Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases inEvaluation of Intelligence Reporting
PART IV--CONCLUSIONS
Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence
Analysis
This ebook can change you view of personal perspectives forever!
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